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| Content Provider | OECD iLibrary |
|---|---|
| Organization | OECD |
| Abstract | La reprise consécutive à la récession la plus profonde depuis des décennies est en train de s’étendre. La croissance mondiale est repartie après le léger ralentissement observé au milieu de l’année passée, et l’activité est tirée de plus en plus par le raffermissement de la demande finale privée. Cela étant, les progrès restent inégaux selon les économies. À court terme, les effets défavorables, sur le plan de l’offre, de la hausse des cours des matières premières, du séisme dont le Japon a été victime et de ses conséquences pèsent quelque peu sur l’activité et font monter l’inflation globale. Ces effets devraient se dissiper à partir du second semestre de l’année, à condition que les cours des matières premières se stabilisent et que les anticipations d’inflation ne perdent pas leur ancrage. Les conditions financières continuent de s’améliorer et la politique monétaire demeure expansionniste dans les économies de l’OCDE, mais de moins en moins dans les économies de marché émergentes, où la marge de capacités inutilisées a été en grande partie résorbée. La reprise devrait donc se raffermir, malgré un processus de plus en plus généralisé d’assainissement des finances publiques. La croissance de la production mondiale devrait approcher 4¼ pour cent cette année et 4½ pour cent en 2012 (tableau 1.1). Dans ces conditions, la situation du marché du travail devrait continuer de s’améliorer lentement, même si, avec un taux de 7 % fin 2012, le chômage sera encore largement supérieur à son niveau d’avant la crise. L’inflation sous-jacente devrait augmenter lentement à mesure que la sous-utilisation des capacités diminuera, pour atteindre environ 1¾ pour cent à la fin de 2012. En dehors de la zone OCDE, la demande intérieure semble devoir rester vigoureuse, d’où la nécessité de prendre de nouvelles mesures pour tempérer les tensions inflationnistes. |
| Page Count | 77 |
| Starting Page | 13 |
| Ending Page | 89 |
| Language | French |
| Publisher | OECD Publishing |
| Publisher Date | 2011-06-17 |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Subject Keyword | Economics |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Chapter |
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