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| Content Provider | OECD iLibrary |
|---|---|
| Organization | OECD |
| Abstract | La reprise a perdu de son allant depuis la mi-2004, mais devrait se raffermir en 2006. On prévoit que le taux de croissance tombera d’un peu moins de 2 % en 2004 à 1¼ pour cent en 2005 avant de remonter aux alentours de 2 % en 2006, la demande intérieure finale se raffermissant. L’écart conjoncturel restera négatif et le taux de chômage demeurera élevé, à plus de 8½ pour cent. Une fois estompé l’effet de la forte hausse des prix du pétrole, l’inflation globale devrait revenir à 1¼ pour cent. Une autre envolée des prix du pétrole ou une nouvelle appréciation de l’euro pourrait entamer davantage la reprise. La décrue de l’inflation et la persistance d’un important écart conjoncturel en 2006 autorisent un assouplissement de la politique monétaire, même s’il faudra retirer de nouveau des liquidités lorsque la reprise s’affermira, vers la fin de la période examinée. Face aux chocs négatifs, la zone euro manque de résilience dans le contexte d’une croissance tendancielle ralentie (moins de 2 % par an). Des facteurs structurels sont à l’oeuvre dans l’un et l’autre cas. Les politiques structurelles devraient viser à achever le marché intérieur européen, à dynamiser le marché du travail et à encourager l’innovation. La politique budgétaire devrait être résolument axée vers la réalisation d’objectifs de viabilité à long terme. |
| Page Count | 11 |
| Starting Page | 54 |
| Ending Page | 57 |
| Language | French |
| Publisher | OECD Publishing |
| Publisher Date | 2005-05-24 |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Subject Keyword | Economics |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Chapter |
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