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| Content Provider | OECD iLibrary |
|---|---|
| Organization | OECD |
| Abstract | L’expansion s’est un peu essoufflée, en partie du fait de la hausse des prix de l’énergie. Celle-ci a déjà freiné la progression des revenus disponibles réels, et comme l’épargne des ménages est proche de zéro, elle pèsera probablement sur la consommation. L’inflation sous-jacente, qui s’était accélérée au début de l’année, est depuis lors revenue vers la partie inférieure de la fourchette souhaitable. La croissance de la productivité s’est ralentie pour se rapprocher de son taux tendanciel, mais les marges bénéficiaires demeurent élevées, ce qui devrait soutenir l’investissement futur. L’économie devrait continuer de connaître un rythme de croissance supérieur au potentiel, mais une nouvelle augmentation durable des prix de l’énergie, un accès de faiblesse du marché du travail ou une hausse plus forte que prévu des taux d’intérêt à long terme compromettraient ces prévisions. Bien que la politique monétaire soit un peu moins expansionniste, elle continue de soutenir l’activité. Un nouveau durcissement ne pourra être que progressif, la hausse des prix de l’énergie freinant l’activité plus qu’elle ne renforce les anticipations inflationnistes. Les finances publiques se sont améliorées plus que prévu, mais l’accélération de la croissance des recettes a été partiellement neutralisée par la progression des dépenses, notamment au titre de la défense et de la sécurité intérieure. On prévoit donc que les déficits demeureront importants, ce qui souligne la nécessité d’ajuster les niveaux d’imposition et de dépenses pour freiner le gonflement de la dette et faire face aux pressions démographiques imminentes. Le déséquilibre extérieur record pourrait également s’en trouver réduit. .. |
| Page Count | 9 |
| Starting Page | 37 |
| Ending Page | 40 |
| Language | French |
| Publisher | OECD Publishing |
| Publisher Date | 2005-01-17 |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Subject Keyword | Economics |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Chapter |
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