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Historic and Simulated Desert-Oasis Ecotone Changes in the Arid Tarim River Basin, China
| Content Provider | MDPI |
|---|---|
| Author | Sun, Fan Wang, Yi Chen, Yaning Li, Yupeng Zhang, Qifei Qin, Jingxiu Kayumba, Patient |
| Copyright Year | 2021 |
| Description | The desert-oasis ecotone, as a crucial natural barrier, maintains the stability of oasis agricultural production and protects oasis habitat security. This paper investigates the dynamic evolution of the desert-oasis ecotone in the Tarim River Basin and predicts the near-future land-use change in the desert-oasis ecotone using the cellular automata–Markov (CA-Markov) model. Results indicate that the overall area of the desert-oasis ecotone shows a shrinking trend (from 67,642 km2 in 1990 to 46,613 km2 in 2015) and the land-use change within the desert-oasis ecotone is mainly manifested by the conversion of a large amount of forest and grass area into arable land. The increasing demand for arable land for groundwater has led to a decline in the groundwater level, which is an important reason for the habitat deterioration in the desert-oasis ecotone. The rising temperature and drought have further exacerbated this trend. Assuming the current trend in development without intervention, the CA-Markov model predicts that by 2030, there will be an additional 1566 km2 of arable land and a reduction of 1151 km2 in forested area and grassland within the desert-oasis ecotone, which will inevitably further weaken the ecological barrier role of the desert-oasis ecotone and trigger a growing ecological crisis. |
| Starting Page | 647 |
| e-ISSN | 20724292 |
| DOI | 10.3390/rs13040647 |
| Journal | Remote Sensing |
| Issue Number | 4 |
| Volume Number | 13 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | MDPI |
| Publisher Date | 2021-02-11 |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Subject Keyword | Remote Sensing Tarim River Basin Desert-oasis Ecotone Land-use Change Ca-markov Model |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
