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A Hydrodynamical Atmosphere/Ocean Coupled Modeling System for Multiple Tropical Cyclones
| Content Provider | MDPI |
|---|---|
| Author | Alaka, Ghassan Sheinin, Dmitry Thomas, Biju Gramer, Lew Zhang, Zhan Liu, Bin Kim, Hyun-Sook Mehra, Avichal |
| Copyright Year | 2020 |
| Description | The goal of this paper is to introduce a new multi-storm atmosphere/ocean coupling scheme that was implemented and tested in the Basin-Scale Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF-B) model. HWRF-B, an experimental model developed at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and supported by the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program, is configured with multiple storm-following nested domains to produce high-resolution predictions for several tropical cyclones (TCs) within the same forecast integration. The new coupling scheme parallelizes atmosphere/ocean interactions for each nested domain in HWRF-B, and it may be applied to any atmosphere/ocean coupled system. TC forecasts from this new hydrodynamical modeling system were produced in the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific from 2017–2019. The performance of HWRF-B was evaluated, including forecasts of TC track, intensity, structure (e.g., surface wind radii), and intensity change, and simulated sea-surface temperatures were compared with satellite observations. Median forecast skill scores showed significant improvement over the operational HWRF at most forecast lead times for track, intensity, and structure. Sea-surface temperatures cooled by 1–8 °C for the five HWRF-B case studies, demonstrating the utility of the model to study the impact of the ocean on TC intensity forecasting. These results show the value of a multi-storm modeling system and provide confidence that the multi-storm coupling scheme was implemented correctly. Future TC models within NOAA, especially the Unified Forecast System’s Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System, would benefit from the multi-storm coupling scheme whose utility and performance are demonstrated in HWRF-B here. |
| Starting Page | 869 |
| e-ISSN | 20734433 |
| DOI | 10.3390/atmos11080869 |
| Journal | Atmosphere |
| Issue Number | 8 |
| Volume Number | 11 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | MDPI |
| Publisher Date | 2020-08-16 |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Subject Keyword | Atmosphere Atmospheric Sciences Tropical Cyclones Atmosphere/ocean Coupling Sea Surface Temperatures Numerical Weather Prediction |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
