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Forecasting the Volume of Tourism Services in Uzbekistan
| Content Provider | MDPI |
|---|---|
| Author | Alexandru, Ilieş Dorina, Camelia Ilieș Katalin, Csobán Vargáné Dávid, Lóránt Dénes Safarov, Bahodirhon Al-Smadi, Hisham Mohammad Buzrukova, Makhina Janzakov, Bekzot Grama, Vasile |
| Copyright Year | 2022 |
| Description | The aim of the present research is to assess the impact of factors such as welfare, infrastructure, security, and the environment on inbound tourism as well as to develop its forecast. Six proxy indicators of the above-mentioned factors were selected as variables, namely, welfare (real GDP per capita, life expectancy, consumer price index), infrastructure (passenger transportation volume), security (total recorded crimes), and the environment $(CO_{2}$ emissions). We used a time series-univariate ARIMA model to forecast the inbound tourism in the Republic of Uzbekistan, and applied the ARDL model to assess the impact of lagged real GDP per capita on inbound tourism in both the short and long terms. The results of our research show that security and welfare significantly affect the inflow of foreign tourists in the country, along with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis, the effects of which are expected to persist beyond 2026. |
| Starting Page | 7762 |
| e-ISSN | 20711050 |
| DOI | 10.3390/su14137762 |
| Journal | Sustainability |
| Issue Number | 13 |
| Volume Number | 14 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | MDPI |
| Publisher Date | 2022-06-25 |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Subject Keyword | Sustainability Tourism, Leisure, Sport and Hospitality Gross Domestic Product Tourism Infrastructure Forecast Trend Tourism Market Arima Ols (ordinary Least Squares) |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
