NDLI: Emergency Medical Services Calls Analysis for Trend Prediction during Epidemic Outbreaks: Interrupted Time Series Analysis on 2020–2021 COVID-19 Epidemic in Lazio, Italy

Please wait, while we are loading the content...

Emergency Medical Services Calls Analysis for Trend Prediction during Epidemic Outbreaks: Interrupted Time Series Analysis on 2020–2021 COVID-19 Epidemic in Lazio, Italy

Content Provider	MDPI
Author	D’Agostino, Gianluca Vinci, Antonio Pasquarella, Amina Corradi, Maria Paola Chatzichristou, Pelagia Iannazzo, Stefania Trani, Nicoletta Parafati, Maria Annunziata Palombi, Leonardo Ientile, Domenico Antonio
Copyright Year	2022
Description	(1) Background: During the COVID-19 outbreak in the Lazio region, a surge in emergency medical service (EMS) calls has been observed. The objective of present study is to investigate if there is any correlation between the variation in numbers of daily EMS calls, and the short-term evolution of the epidemic wave. (2) Methods: Data from the COVID-19 outbreak has been retrieved in order to draw the epidemic curve in the Lazio region. Data from EMS calls has been used in order to determine Excess of Calls (ExCa) in the 2020–2021 years, compared to the year 2019 (baseline). Multiple linear regression models have been run between ExCa and the first-order derivative (D’) of the epidemic wave in time, each regression model anticipating the epidemic progression (up to 14 days), in order to probe a correlation between the variables. (3) Results: EMS calls variation from baseline is correlated with the slope of the curve of ICU admissions, with the most fitting value found at 7 days $(R^{2}$ 0.33, p < 0.001). (4) Conclusions: EMS calls deviation from baseline allows public health services to predict short-term epidemic trends in COVID-19 outbreaks, and can be used as validation of current data, or as an independent estimator of future trends.
Starting Page	5951
e-ISSN	16604601
DOI	10.3390/ijerph19105951
Journal	International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
Issue Number	10
Volume Number	19
Language	English
Publisher	MDPI
Publisher Date	2022-05-13
Access Restriction	Open
Subject Keyword	International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health Covid-19 Time Series Analysis Emergency Medical Services Public Health Prediction Models
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

Central Library (ISO-9001:2015 Certified)
Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur
Kharagpur, West Bengal, India | PIN - 721302

See location in the Map
03222 282435
Mail: support@ndl.gov.in

Sl.	Authority	Responsibilities	Communication Details
1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
5	Website/Portal (Helpdesk)	Queries regarding NDLI and its services	support@ndl.gov.in
6	Contents and Copyright Issues	Queries related to content curation and copyright issues	content@ndl.gov.in
7	National Digital Library of India Club (NDLI Club)	Queries related to NDLI Club formation, support, user awareness program, seminar/symposium, collaboration, social media, promotion, and outreach	clubsupport@ndl.gov.in
8	Digital Preservation Centre (DPC)	Assistance with digitizing and archiving copyright-free printed books	dpc@ndl.gov.in
9	IDR Setup or Support	Queries related to establishment and support of Institutional Digital Repository (IDR) and IDR workshops	idr@ndl.gov.in