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Near Future Projection of Indian Summer Monsoon Circulation under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Warming
| Content Provider | MDPI |
|---|---|
| Author | Choudhury, Devanil Nath, Debashis Chen, Wen |
| Copyright Year | 2022 |
| Description | The Indian summer monsoon’s (ISM) response to low (1.5 °C) and medium (2.0 °C) warming scenarios are examined during the period 2021–2050 using 11 member ensembles of the state-of-the-art Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1-CAM5) datasets. We find that in the near-term period an increase in warming by 0.5 °C will strengthen the monsoon circulation and precipitation over the Indian landmass and east Asia. Under the 1.5 °C warming scenario, the ISM circulation will weaken, and precipitation will exhibit a decreasing trend, while the ISM precipitation and circulation will strengthen under the 2.0 °C warming scenario. The strengthening of ISM under the 2.0 °C warming scenario is due to the strengthening of the South China Sea (SCS) anticyclone and a high-pressure center near the Philippine Island. This high-pressure center over the SCS will facilitate a cross-basin strengthening of the easterly wind from the western Pacific Ocean/SCS to the equatorial Indian Ocean, which will, in turn, strengthen the transport of the Pacific-origin moisture to the Indian subcontinent and East Asia. This increase in moisture content over the Indian subcontinent will strengthen the monsoonal circulation and precipitation under the 2.0 °C warming scenario. |
| Starting Page | 1081 |
| e-ISSN | 20734433 |
| DOI | 10.3390/atmos13071081 |
| Journal | Atmosphere |
| Issue Number | 7 |
| Volume Number | 13 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | MDPI |
| Publisher Date | 2022-07-08 |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Subject Keyword | Atmosphere Atmospheric Sciences Indian Summer Monsoon Cesm1 1.5 °c 2.0 °c South China Sea Indian Ocean Internal Climate Variability |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
