NDLI: Contributions of Climate Variability and Human Activities to Runoff Changes in the Upper Catchment of the Red River Basin, China

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Contributions of Climate Variability and Human Activities to Runoff Changes in the Upper Catchment of the Red River Basin, China

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Contributions of Climate Variability and Human Activities to Runoff Changes in the Upper Catchment of the Red River Basin, China

Content Provider	MDPI
Author	Li, Yungang He, Daming Li, Xue Zhang, Yueyuan Yang, Liyan
Abstract	Quantifying the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff changes will contribute to regional water resource planning and management. This study aims to separate the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff changes in the upper catchment of the Red River Basin in China. The Mann–Kendall test and Pettitt’s test methods were applied to identify the trends and change points of the hydro-meteorological variables. The hydrological sensitivity, climate elasticity and hydrological simulation methods were adopted to estimate the contributions of climate variability and human activities to runoff changes. Results showed that annual runoff significantly decreased by 1.57 mm/year during the period of 1961–2012. A change point in annual runoff coefficient occurred in 2002. Accordingly, the annual runoff series were divided into the baseline period (1961–2002) and the impacted period (2003–2012). Mean annual runoff of the impacted period decreased by 29.13% compared with the baseline period. Similar estimates of the contributions of climate variability and human activities were obtained by the three different methods. Climate variability was estimated to be responsible for 69%–71% of the reduction in annual runoff, and human activities accounted for 29%–31%. Climate variability was the main driving factor for runoff decrease in the catchment.
File Size	7473152
File Format	PDF
e-ISSN	20734441
DOI	10.3390/w8090414
Journal	Water
Issue Number	9
Volume Number	8
Language	English
Publisher Date	2016-09-21
Access Restriction	Open
Subject Keyword	climate variability human activities runoff change hydrological sensitivity climate elasticity hydrological simulation Red River
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

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