NDLI: Short-term price forecasting of Nordic power market by combination Levenberg

Content Provider	IET Digital Library
Author	Kim, Mun Kyeom
Abstract	This study proposes a new forecasting method for short-term spot prices in the Nordic power market. It proposes a Cuckoo search Levenberg–Marquardt (CSLM)-trained, CSLM feed-forward neural network (CSLM-FFNN) for the solving process that combines the improved Levenberg Marquardt and Cuckoo search algorithms. The proposed model considers actual power generation and system load as input sets to facilitate the efficient use of both transmission and power generation resources by direct market participants. During the training, the proposed CSLM-FFNN model generalises the relationship between the area prices and the system price for the same period. The model can be updated to track online the variation trend of the electricity price and to maintain accuracy because of the rapid training speed in CSLM learning algorithm. The developed model is tested with publicly available data acquired from the Nord Pool, and the model's performance is compared with state-of-the-art artificial neural networks and time-series models. Besides, the proposed approach is applied to forecast market-clearing price in the Spanish electricity market, to further assess the validity of the approach. The results show that the proposed CSLM-FFNN exhibits superior performance than other methods in terms of forecasting accuracy and training efficiency.
Starting Page	1553
Ending Page	1563
Page Count	11
ISSN	17518687
Volume Number	9
e-ISSN	17518695
Issue Number	Issue 13, Oct (2015)
Alternate Webpage(s)	https://digital-library.theiet.org/content/journals/iet-gtd/9/13
Alternate Webpage(s)	https://digital-library.theiet.org/content/journals/10.1049/iet-gtd.2014.0957
Journal	IET Generation, Transmission & Distribution
Publisher	The Institution of Engineering and Technology
Publisher Date	2015-05-06
Access Restriction	Open
Rights License	Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/)
Subject Keyword	ANN Artificial Neural Network Combinatorial Mathematics CSLM Learning Algorithm Cuckoo Search Algorithm Direct Market Participants Economic Forecasting Electricity Price Feedforward Neural Network FFNN Forecasting Accuracy Knowledge Engineering Technique Learning in AI Levenberg-Marquardt Algorithm Neural Computing Technique Nordic Power Market Optimisation Technique Power Engineering Computing Power Generation Economics Power Generation ReSource Power Market Power System Economics Power System Managemen Power System Operation Pricing Search Problem Short-term Price Forecasting Spot Prices Statistics System Load Time Series Time-series Model Training Efficiency Transmission ReSource
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Control and Systems Engineering Energy Engineering and Power Technology Electrical and Electronic Engineering

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