NDLI: Point and interval forecasting of real-time and day-ahead electricity prices by a novel hybrid approach

Content Provider	IET Digital Library
Author	Tahmasebifar, Reza Eslami, Mohammad Kazem Sheikh El Kheirollahi, Reza
Abstract	Accurate forecasting of electricity market prices presents important information to market participants. This provides forward planning of their bidding strategies in order to maximise revenue, profit, and utility perspectives. Nevertheless, due to the non-stationarities involved in market clearing price, an accurate forecasting of these prices is very complex. In this case, transformation from traditional point forecasts to probabilistic interval ones is of great importance to quantify the uncertainties of potential forecasts. In this study, interval forecasting of market clearing prices is conducted based on a novel approach within two consecutive steps. In the first step, a new hybrid method is proposed to estimate point forecasts: combination of wavelet transformation (Wt), feature selection based on Mutual Information (MI), extreme learning machine (ELM), and bootstrap approaches in an ensemble structure is employed. The second step consists of the following stepwise parts: calculating the variance of the model uncertainties based on the extracted data from the ensemble structure, estimating the noise variance by using the maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE), and improving the accuracy of interval forecasting by using particle swarm optimisation (PSO) algorithm. The effectiveness of the proposed approach termed as Wt–mutual information–ELM–MLE–PSO is validated through electricity market real data of Australian electricity network from real-time and day-ahead market viewpoints.
Starting Page	2173
Ending Page	2183
Page Count	11
ISSN	17518687
Volume Number	11
e-ISSN	17518695
Issue Number	Issue 9, Jun (2017)
Alternate Webpage(s)	https://digital-library.theiet.org/content/journals/iet-gtd/11/9
Alternate Webpage(s)	https://digital-library.theiet.org/content/journals/10.1049/iet-gtd.2016.1396
Journal	IET Generation, Transmission & Distribution
Publisher Date	2017-03-24
Access Restriction	Open
Rights Holder	© The Institution of Engineering and Technology
Subject Keyword	Australian Electricity Network Electricity Market Real Data Bidding Strategy Forward Planning Bootstrap Approach Data Handling Technique Day-ahead Electricity Price Point And Interval Forcasting Electricity Market Price Forecasting Extreme Learning Machine Feature Selection Integral Transforms Knowledge Engineering Technique Learning in AI Market Clearing Price Interval Forecasting Maximum Likelihood Estimation Maximum-likelihood Estimation Model Uncertainty Variance Calculation Optimisation Technique Particle Swarm Optimisation Particle Swarm Optimisation Algorithm Power Engineering Computing Power Market Power System Economics Power System Managemen Power System Operation Pricing Profit Maximisation Profitability Real-time Electricity Price Point And Interval Forecasting Revenue Maximisation Statistical Analysis Statistics Tendering Utility Perspective Wavelet Transform Wavelet Transformation Combination Wt-mutual Information-ELM-MLE-PSO Hybrid Approach
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Control and Systems Engineering Energy Engineering and Power Technology Electrical and Electronic Engineering

Sl.	Authority	Responsibilities	Communication Details
1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
5	Website/Portal (Helpdesk)	Queries regarding NDLI and its services	support@ndl.gov.in
6	Contents and Copyright Issues	Queries related to content curation and copyright issues	content@ndl.gov.in
7	National Digital Library of India Club (NDLI Club)	Queries related to NDLI Club formation, support, user awareness program, seminar/symposium, collaboration, social media, promotion, and outreach	clubsupport@ndl.gov.in
8	Digital Preservation Centre (DPC)	Assistance with digitizing and archiving copyright-free printed books	dpc@ndl.gov.in
9	IDR Setup or Support	Queries related to establishment and support of Institutional Digital Repository (IDR) and IDR workshops	idr@ndl.gov.in

Day-ahead electricity price analysis and forecasting by singular spectrum analysis

Deep learning for day-ahead electricity price forecasting

Day-ahead electricity price forecasting using the wavelet transform and ARIMA models

A Statistical Approach for Interval Forecasting of the Electricity Price

A novel hybrid approach using wavelet, firefly algorithm, and fuzzy ARTMAP for day-ahead electricity price forecasting

Prediction interval estimations for electricity demands and prices: a multi-objective approach

Hybrid Wavelet-PSO-ANFIS Approach for Short-Term Electricity Prices Forecasting

A hybrid model for integrated day-ahead electricity price and load forecasting in smart grid

Optimal energy management of compressed air energy storage in day-ahead and real-time energy markets

Point and interval forecasting of real-time and day-ahead electricity prices by a novel hybrid approach

Similar Documents

Day-ahead electricity price analysis and forecasting by singular spectrum analysis

Deep learning for day-ahead electricity price forecasting

Day-ahead electricity price forecasting using the wavelet transform and ARIMA models

A Statistical Approach for Interval Forecasting of the Electricity Price

A novel hybrid approach using wavelet, firefly algorithm, and fuzzy ARTMAP for day-ahead electricity price forecasting

Prediction interval estimations for electricity demands and prices: a multi-objective approach

Hybrid Wavelet-PSO-ANFIS Approach for Short-Term Electricity Prices Forecasting

A hybrid model for integrated day-ahead electricity price and load forecasting in smart grid

Optimal energy management of compressed air energy storage in day-ahead and real-time energy markets

Point and interval forecasting of real-time and day-ahead electricity prices by a novel hybrid approach