NDLI: Getting back to scenario planning: Strategic action in the future of energy Europe

Content Provider	IEEE Xplore Digital Library
Author	Blomgren, H. Jonsson, P. Lagergren, F.
Copyright Year	2011
Description	Author affiliation: KTH Executive School Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden (Lagergren, F.) \|\| Industrial Economics and Management, INDEK Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden (Blomgren, H.) \|\| KreabGavinAnderson, Sweden (Jonsson, P.)
Abstract	Scenario planning is a commonly used method in order to analyse complex aspects of the energy system. Historically it has been an important tool to prepare for long-term action. Today however, due to the deregulated market, it could be assumed that scenario analysis is abandoned. Maybe more (the only) attention is on short-term action. This paper presents a review over the time period of 1970 to 2010 on scenario-planning articles. The overall purpose is to evaluate how historical scenario studies stand in a situation of today's deregulated energy markets. Articles surveyed are published in well-respected and internationally well-spread peer-reviewed journals. Focus is put on 1, when, and by whom, articles have been published 2, for what reasons projects have been taken and with what method 3, what aspect that have been in focus. The articles are also analysed in terms of possible use in today's deregulated situation. Three conclusions are drawn. Firstly, the main use of scenario planning still tends to be a support to political processes. Secondly, three major issues and drivers for change dominate when different aspects of the energy system are analysed in scenario projects: climate change, security in terms of demand/supply and economic development. Thirdly, it is concluded that scenario planning still tend to be of value when analysing the future of the deregulated energy sector in Europe. However, in order to be fully utilized for the future scenario methodology must take into account that energy industry actors are not being controlled by politics as they where during the regulated period.
Starting Page	792
Ending Page	801
File Size	593218
Page Count	10
File Format	PDF
ISBN	9781612842851
e-ISBN	9781612842868
e-ISBN	9781612842844
DOI	10.1109/EEM.2011.5953118
Language	English
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Publisher Date	2011-05-25
Publisher Place	Croatia
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Rights Holder	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Subject Keyword	Economics Industries Casting Europe Planning Security Meteorology
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

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