NDLI: Coal Demand Forecast Based on Consumption Structure Partition

Content Provider	IEEE Xplore Digital Library
Author	Zhongyu Zhang Jian Chai Qing Zhu
Copyright Year	2013
Description	Author affiliation: Nat. Center for Math. & Interdiscipl. Sci., Beijing, China (Jian Chai) \|\| Int. Bus. Sch., Shaanxi Normal Univ., Xi'an, China (Zhongyu Zhang; Qing Zhu)
Abstract	In order to forecast total coal demand of China, this paper divides consumption by sector in detail, including Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, Fishery and Water Conservancy, Industry, Construction, Transport, Storage and Post, Wholesale and Retail Trades, Hotels and Catering Services, Other Sectors, Household Consumption. Then, this paper forecasts coal consumption value until next decade by collecting 1980-2010 coal consumption data and choosing ETS and Holt-Winters forecasting models from multitudinous models. At the same time, combining with the historical data and predicted results, different trends of total and proportion of coal consumption has carried on the detailed analysis and explanation of each sector. Finally, total coal consumption forecast value is obtained by combining the results of two univariate forecasting models. Empirical results show that by 2020, total coal demand is 4.7 billion tons of china. Therefore, the implementation of energy conservation and emissions reduction, improvement of energy efficiency, development of new energy and other measures are more help ensure the sustainable development of China.
Starting Page	485
Ending Page	489
File Size	310083
Page Count	5
File Format	PDF
e-ISBN	9781479947775
DOI	10.1109/BIFE.2013.102
Language	English
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Publisher Date	2013-11-14
Publisher Place	China
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Rights Holder	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Subject Keyword	Industries coal demand Holt-Winters Biological system modeling ETS Coal Predictive models Market research Data models Forecasting combination forecast consumption structure
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

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4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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