NDLI: Opinion Dynamics of Elections in Twitter

Content Provider	IEEE Xplore Digital Library
Author	Bravo-Marquez, F. Gayo-Avello, D. Mendoza, M. Poblete, B.
Copyright Year	2012
Abstract	In this work we conduct an empirical study of opinion time series created from Twitter data regarding the 2008 U.S. elections. The focus of our proposal is to establish whether a time series is appropriate or not for generating a reliable predictive model. We analyze time series obtained from Twitter messages related to the 2008 U.S. elections using ARMA/ARIMA and GARCH models. The first models are used in order to assess the conditional mean of the process and the second ones to assess the conditional variance or volatility. The main argument we discuss is that opinion time series that exhibit volatility should not be used for long-term forecasting purposes. We present an in-depth analysis of the statistical properties of these time series. Our experiments show that these time series are not fit for predicting future opinion trends. Due to the fact that researchers have not provided enough evidence to support the alleged predictive power of opinion time series, we discuss how more rigorous validation of predictive models generated from time series could benefit the opinion mining field.
Starting Page	32
Ending Page	39
File Size	812425
Page Count	8
File Format	PDF
ISBN	9781467344739
DOI	10.1109/LA-WEB.2012.11
Language	English
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Publisher Date	2012-10-25
Publisher Place	Colombia
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Rights Holder	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Subject Keyword	opinion mining time series analysis Analytical models twitter Time series analysis Nominations and elections Predictive models Media Twitter volatility Mathematical model
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

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1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
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3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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