NDLI: Analysis of data to predict warranty cost for various regions

Content Provider	IEEE Xplore Digital Library
Author	Vinta, S.
Copyright Year	2009
Description	Author affiliation: NSK Steering Systems of America Inc., USA (Vinta, S.)
Abstract	Nowadays, automobile manufacturers are assembling vehicles at one location or multiple locations and selling them in the global markets. The Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEM) are asking the suppliers to share the warranty return cost for their returned components. This recent phenomenon is putting the supplier in precarious position, financially, by sharing the warranty cost when supplier margins are very thin. It is creating a challenge to suppliers how to predict the warranty cost based on components sold and forecasted to sell in coming months and years when vehicles are selling world wide carrying different warranty terms. Typically, luxury vehicles sold in North America carries warranty period of 4 years or 48,000 miles whichever comes first. In Asia, Australia, Europe and Africa warranty period is 2 years irrespective of mileage on the vehicle. Vehicle sale volumes are going to change based on currency fluctuations and demand for the particular product. This poses a challenge to the supplier's in predicting the warranty costs for various regions. This study shows that, how to take the complex failure information for different regions and break it down to main categories. The vehicle sale information has been divided into North America and rest of the World (ROW). In the same way, failure data related to particular system warranty separated by regions. ROW market failure data has been analyzed by using the Reliasoft Weibull ++ software with forecasted quantities using time as univariate. Two variables were identified to calculate the warranty forecast for the North American market. One is time and another one is mileage on the vehicle. From our experience, the failure rate of a sub system is more dependent on usage rather than time. The data clearly shows that, customers are putting 40 miles per day on average and 80 % of vehicles are reaching the warranty usage limit before the time limit. Based on this data, and failure rate is dependent on usage rather than time. It is easy to do calculations by employing the univariate plan rather than complex analysis by taking time and usage parameters. Warranty costs are calculated based on Maximum likelihood estimation. This approach is relatively easy to follow for small to medium suppliers in the automotive industry.
Starting Page	78
Ending Page	82
File Size	364714
Page Count	5
File Format	PDF
ISBN	9781424425082
ISSN	0149144X
DOI	10.1109/RAMS.2009.4914654
Language	English
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Publisher Date	2009-01-26
Publisher Place	USA
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Rights Holder	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Subject Keyword	Data analysis Warranties Costs Vehicles Automobile manufacture North America Marketing and sales Economic forecasting Assembly Globalization failure rate Reliability Two-dimension mileage accumulation prediction time in service
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

Sl.	Authority	Responsibilities	Communication Details
1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
5	Website/Portal (Helpdesk)	Queries regarding NDLI and its services	support@ndl.gov.in
6	Contents and Copyright Issues	Queries related to content curation and copyright issues	content@ndl.gov.in
7	National Digital Library of India Club (NDLI Club)	Queries related to NDLI Club formation, support, user awareness program, seminar/symposium, collaboration, social media, promotion, and outreach	clubsupport@ndl.gov.in
8	Digital Preservation Centre (DPC)	Assistance with digitizing and archiving copyright-free printed books	dpc@ndl.gov.in
9	IDR Setup or Support	Queries related to establishment and support of Institutional Digital Repository (IDR) and IDR workshops	idr@ndl.gov.in