NDLI: Decision support for the decomposition of event information in judgemental time series forecasting

Content Provider	IEEE Xplore Digital Library
Author	Webby, R. Edmundson, B.
Copyright Year	1994
Description	Author affiliation: Sch. of Inf. Syst., New South Wales Univ., Kensington, NSW, Australia (Webby, R.; Edmundson, B.)
Abstract	Substantial recent emphasis has been placed on the importance of discontinuities and contextual information in time series forecasting. To accommodate these factors, statistical forecasts are often judgementally adjusted in an ad hoc, informal manner that is prone to bias, especially when the model is not understood. The paper reports an alternative approach. An interactive graphical decision aid was developed, enabling the forecaster to: decompose discontinuities for contextual 'event' information; forecast from the resultant simplified series; and anticipate future events in the forecast. Empirical tests showed a significant improvement in forecast accuracy over unaided judgement. This effect occurred for series with upward and downward slopes, and with small and large numbers of special events.
Starting Page	253
Ending Page	262
File Size	975148
Page Count	10
File Format	PDF
ISBN	0818650907
DOI	10.1109/HICSS.1994.323346
Language	English
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Publisher Date	1994-01-04
Publisher Place	USA
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Rights Holder	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Subject Keyword	Decision-support systems Time series Forecasting Computer graphics
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

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Decision support for the decomposition of event information in judgemental time series forecasting