NDLI: Game-theoretic probability and defensive forecasting

Content Provider	IEEE Xplore Digital Library
Author	Shafer, G.
Copyright Year	2007
Description	Author affiliation: Rutgers Bus. Sch., Newark (Shafer, G.)
Abstract	In 2001, Vladimir Vovk and I demonstrated how game theory can replace measure theory as a foundation for classical probability theory, discrete and continuous ( !, Wiley 2001). In the game-theoretic framework, classical probability theorems are proven by betting strategies that make a player rich without risking bankruptcy if the theorem's prediction fails. These strategies can be specified explicitly, and so the theory has a constructive flavor that lends itself to applications in economics and statistics. Defensive forecasting is one of the most interesting of these applications. It identifies a comprehensive betting strategy, which becomes rich if the probabilities fail in a relevant way (say by being uncalibrated or having poor resolution), and it chooses probabilities to defeat this comprehensive betting strategy. The fact that this is possible gives us new insight into the very meaning of probability.
Starting Page	272
Ending Page	280
File Size	181863
Page Count	9
File Format	PDF
ISBN	9781424413058
DOI	10.1109/WSC.2007.4419612
Language	English
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Publisher Date	2007-12-09
Publisher Place	USA
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Rights Holder	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Subject Keyword	Game theory Protocols Economic forecasting Statistics Frequency estimation Finance Probability distribution Jacobian matrices Ethics Physics
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

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1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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