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| Content Provider | IEEE Xplore Digital Library |
|---|---|
| Author | Meng-Di Wang Qi-Rong Qiu Bing-Wei Cui |
| Copyright Year | 2012 |
| Description | Author affiliation: Department of Mathematics and Physics, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China (Qi-Rong Qiu; Bing-Wei Cui) || Faculty of Mechanical & Electronic information, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China (Meng-Di Wang) |
| Abstract | In order to improve the accuracy of the wind speed forecasting in the wind farm, this paper presents an ARIMA-ARCH model, which considers the heteroscedastic effect between the fluctuation of wind speed and the characteristics of the change of wind speed, to forecast the wind speed. First of all, the ARIMA model for the wind speed time series is built by SPSS. After that, the high lag order ARCH effect is found in the residual of the ARIMA model by Lagrange multiplier (LM) test. At last, the GARCH model is built for simulating the residual series and thus to construct the ARIMA-ARCH model. Numerical experiments demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method when comparing with the traditional ARIMA model. |
| Starting Page | 924 |
| Ending Page | 927 |
| File Size | 534880 |
| Page Count | 4 |
| File Format | |
| ISBN | 9781467314848 |
| ISSN | 2160133X |
| e-ISBN | 9781467314879 |
| DOI | 10.1109/ICMLC.2012.6359477 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE) |
| Publisher Date | 2012-07-15 |
| Publisher Place | China |
| Access Restriction | Subscribed |
| Rights Holder | Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE) |
| Subject Keyword | Predictive models Pollution measurement Wind forecasting Wind speed Time series analysis Abstracts Atmospheric measurements ARCH model Short-term wind speed forecasting ARIMA model |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
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