NDLI: Targeted residual analysis for improving electric load forecasting

Content Provider	IEEE Xplore Digital Library
Author	Alfeld, S. Barford, P.
Copyright Year	2014
Description	Author affiliation: Dept. of Comput. Sci., Univ. of Wisconsin - Madison, Madison, WI, USA (Alfeld, S.; Barford, P.)
Abstract	Management and operation of the electrical grid in the US is handled in large part by regional authorities called Independent System Operators (ISO's). One of the key activities of an ISO is load forecasting which is critical to short-term energy trading markets and effective operation of the power grid. In this paper, we analyze load forecasts and develop methods for improving forecasts that can be used directly by ISO's or third parties. Specifically, we assess the hourly electrical load forecasts against actual load data provided by Midwest ISO over a two-year period. Residual analysis shows systematic inaccuracies in hourly forecasts that can be caused by a variety of factors including modeling errors and pumped storage in the grid. We utilize machine learning-based methods to improve forecasts over short time horizons. Our methods reduce the mean squared error of forecasts over the entire year by roughly 20%. By shortening the forecast horizon to 1 to 32 hours, we are able to improve by over 90%. These improvements can be important in operational energy market contexts, where even small differences in forecasts can lead to large swings in transmission behavior and market activity.
Sponsorship	IEEE Croatia Sect.
Starting Page	459
Ending Page	466
File Size	1348962
Page Count	8
File Format	PDF
ISBN	9781479924493
DOI	10.1109/ENERGYCON.2014.6850467
Language	English
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Publisher Date	2014-05-13
Publisher Place	Croatia
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Rights Holder	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Subject Keyword	Buildings Noise Weather forecasting Reliability
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

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1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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