NDLI: Forecasting with an Input-Output Model

Content Provider	IEEE Xplore Digital Library
Author	Wood, A.J.
Copyright Year	1963
Abstract	One of the more difficult problems of the modeling of corporate activities is in the area of forecasting equipment retirement. This paper develops a statistical forecasting method based on an input-output model suitable for use in this particular problem as well as in similar areas. The model assumes that present output is a linear, time invariant function of current and past input values. The model parameters may be developed by employing a constrained gradient technique. The use of this method is illustrated by developing retirement frequency and survivor curves for several input-output time series of electric utility plant data. These results are obtained without the assumption of particular shapes for the retirement frequency functions. The results are compared to those obtained with more conventional techniques. This comparison leads to the conclusion that the method may be advantageously employed for retirement studies where the equipment class exhibits a very long life or where the equipment mortality characteristics do not tend to behave in a fashion that is easily anticipated.
Starting Page	1404
Ending Page	1411
Page Count	8
File Size	1676728
File Format	PDF
ISSN	00189510
Volume Number	PAS-87
Issue Number	6
Language	English
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Publisher Date	1968-06-01
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Rights Holder	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Subject Keyword	Predictive models Retirement Economic forecasting Power system modeling Power industry Frequency Power engineering and energy Investments Corporate activities Systems engineering and theory
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Engineering Energy Engineering and Power Technology Electrical and Electronic Engineering

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