NDLI: Forecasting the Mean and the Variance of Electricity Prices in Deregulated Markets

Content Provider	IEEE Xplore Digital Library
Author	Ruibal, C.M. Mazumdar, M.
Copyright Year	1969
Abstract	A fundamental bid-based stochastic model is presented to predict electricity hourly prices and average price in a given period. The model captures both the economic and physical aspects of the pricing process, considering two sources of uncertainty: availability of the units and demand. This work is based on three oligopoly models-Bertrand, Cournot, and supply function equilibrium (SFE) due to Rudkevich, Duckworth, and Rosen-and obtains closed form expressions for expected value and variance of electricity hourly prices and average price. Sensitivity analysis is performed on the number of firms, anticipated peak demand, and price elasticity of demand. The results show that as the number of firms in the market decreases, the expected values of prices increase by a significant amount. Variances for the Cournot model also increase, but the variances for the SFE model decrease, taking even smaller values than Bertrand's. Thus, if the Rudkevich model is an accurate representation of the electricity market, the results show that an introduction of competition may decrease the expected value of prices but the variances may actually increase. Finally, using a refinement of the model, it has been demonstrated that an accurate temperature forecast can reduce significantly the prediction error of the electricity prices.
Sponsorship	IEEE Power Engineering Society
Starting Page	25
Ending Page	32
Page Count	8
File Size	289727
File Format	PDF
ISSN	08858950
Volume Number	23
Issue Number	1
Language	English
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Publisher Date	2008-02-01
Publisher Place	U.S.A.
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Rights Holder	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Subject Keyword	Economic forecasting Electricity supply industry deregulation Predictive models Stochastic processes Pricing Uncertainty Availability Oligopoly Sensitivity analysis Elasticity supply function equilibrium Average prices Bertrand model Cournot model deregulated electricity markets Edgeworth expansion electricity price variance electricity prices hourly prices method of cumulants Rudkevich, Duckworth, and Rosen's formula stochastic load
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Energy Engineering and Power Technology Electrical and Electronic Engineering

Sl.	Authority	Responsibilities	Communication Details
1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
5	Website/Portal (Helpdesk)	Queries regarding NDLI and its services	support@ndl.gov.in
6	Contents and Copyright Issues	Queries related to content curation and copyright issues	content@ndl.gov.in
7	National Digital Library of India Club (NDLI Club)	Queries related to NDLI Club formation, support, user awareness program, seminar/symposium, collaboration, social media, promotion, and outreach	clubsupport@ndl.gov.in
8	Digital Preservation Centre (DPC)	Assistance with digitizing and archiving copyright-free printed books	dpc@ndl.gov.in
9	IDR Setup or Support	Queries related to establishment and support of Institutional Digital Repository (IDR) and IDR workshops	idr@ndl.gov.in

Cournot Prices Considering Generator Availability and Demand Uncertainty

A Stackelberg price leadership model with application to deregulated electricity markets

The electricity price duration curve under Bertrand and Cournot models

Forecasting Techniques for Deregulated Electricity Market Prices - Extended Survey

A probability model for the electricity price duration curve under an oligopoly market

A market power model with demand flexibility over time for deregulated electricity markets

Forecasting techniques for deregulated electricity market prices

Reconciling Cournot and Bertrand Outcomes: A Review

A proposed LOSBE as a generation "reliability" index for deregulated electricity markets

Forecasting the Mean and the Variance of Electricity Prices in Deregulated Markets

Similar Documents

Cournot Prices Considering Generator Availability and Demand Uncertainty

A Stackelberg price leadership model with application to deregulated electricity markets

The electricity price duration curve under Bertrand and Cournot models

Forecasting Techniques for Deregulated Electricity Market Prices - Extended Survey

A probability model for the electricity price duration curve under an oligopoly market

A market power model with demand flexibility over time for deregulated electricity markets

Forecasting techniques for deregulated electricity market prices

Reconciling Cournot and Bertrand Outcomes: A Review

A proposed LOSBE as a generation "reliability" index for deregulated electricity markets

Forecasting the Mean and the Variance of Electricity Prices in Deregulated Markets