NDLI: Real-time performance reliability prediction

Content Provider	IEEE Xplore Digital Library
Author	Huitian Lu Kolarik, W.J. Lu, S.S.
Copyright Year	1963
Abstract	The purpose of this paper is to describe an approach to real-time reliability prediction, applicable to an individual product unit, operating under dynamic conditions. The concept of conditional reliability estimation is extended to real-time applications using time-series analysis techniques to bridge the gap between physical measurement and reliability prediction. The model is based on empirical measurements, self-generating, and applicable to online applications. This approach has been demonstrated to the prototype level. Physical performance is measured and forecast across time to estimate reliability. Time-series analysis is adapted to forecast performance. Exponential smoothing with a linear level and trend adaptation is applied. This procedure is computationally recursive and provides short-term, real-time performance forecasts which are linked directly to conditional reliability estimates. Failure clues must be present in the physical signals, and failure must be defined in terms of physical measures to accomplish this linkage. On-line, real-time applications of performance reliability prediction are useful in operation control as well as predictive maintenance.
Sponsorship	IEEE Reliability Society
Starting Page	353
Ending Page	357
Page Count	5
File Size	122557
File Format	PDF
ISSN	00189529
Volume Number	50
Issue Number	4
Language	English
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Publisher Date	2001-12-01
Publisher Place	U.S.A.
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Rights Holder	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Subject Keyword	Time measurement Time series analysis Smoothing methods Robotics and automation Engineering management Industrial engineering Bridges Prototypes Performance analysis Recursive estimation
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality Electrical and Electronic Engineering

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