NDLI: Analysis of the value for unit commitment of improved load forecasts

Content Provider	IEEE Xplore Digital Library
Author	Hobbs, B.F. Jitprapaikulsarn, S. Konda, S. Chankong, V. Loparo, K.A. Maratukulam, D.J.
Copyright Year	1969
Abstract	Load forecast errors can yield suboptimal unit commitment decisions. The economic cost of inaccurate forecasts is assessed by a combination of forecast simulation, unit commitment optimization, and economic dispatch modeling for several different generation/load systems. The forecast simulation preserves the error distributions and correlations actually experienced by users of a neural net-based forecasting system. Underforecasts result in purchases of expensive peaking or spot market power; overforecasts inflate start-up and fixed costs because too much capacity is committed. The value of improved accuracy is found to depend on load and generator characteristics; for the systems considered here, a reduction of 1% in mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) decreases variable generation costs by approximately 0.1%-0.3% when MAPE is in the range of 3%-5%. These values are broadly consistent with the results of a survey of 19 utilities, using estimates obtained by simpler methods. A conservative estimate is that a 1% reduction in forecasting error for a 10,000 MW utility can save up to $1.6 million annually.
Sponsorship	IEEE Power Engineering Society
Starting Page	1342
Ending Page	1348
Page Count	7
File Size	610080
File Format	PDF
ISSN	08858950
Volume Number	14
Issue Number	4
Language	English
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Publisher Date	1999-11-01
Publisher Place	U.S.A.
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Rights Holder	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Subject Keyword	Load forecasting Economic forecasting Power system economics Power generation economics Costs Fuel economy Predictive models Power system analysis computing Error correction Environmental economics
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Energy Engineering and Power Technology Electrical and Electronic Engineering

Sl.	Authority	Responsibilities	Communication Details
1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
5	Website/Portal (Helpdesk)	Queries regarding NDLI and its services	support@ndl.gov.in
6	Contents and Copyright Issues	Queries related to content curation and copyright issues	content@ndl.gov.in
7	National Digital Library of India Club (NDLI Club)	Queries related to NDLI Club formation, support, user awareness program, seminar/symposium, collaboration, social media, promotion, and outreach	clubsupport@ndl.gov.in
8	Digital Preservation Centre (DPC)	Assistance with digitizing and archiving copyright-free printed books	dpc@ndl.gov.in
9	IDR Setup or Support	Queries related to establishment and support of Institutional Digital Repository (IDR) and IDR workshops	idr@ndl.gov.in

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