NDLI: A technique for reducing computational effort in Monte-Carlo based composite reliability evaluation

Content Provider	IEEE Xplore Digital Library
Author	Oliveira, G.C. Pereira, M.V.F. Cunha, S.H.F.
Copyright Year	1969
Abstract	The authors describe a novel technique for reducing the number of samplings in Monte-Carlo-based composite power system reliability evaluation. The proposed technique uses analytical information from simple models (such as a generation reliability model) as regression variables to reduce the variance of LOLP (loss-of-load probability) and EPNS (expected power not supplied) estimates with the complete (composite) model. Sample size reductions of up to two orders of magnitude were obtained in case studies with a 24 bus modified reliability test system and a 124 bus reduced Brazilian system. Speed-ups of 6.1 to more than 40 were obtained for the estimate of the EPNS and of 2.1 to 3.8 for the LOLP estimate. In all cases, the EPNS index required more samplings to converge to the required tolerance (5% relative uncertainty) than the respective LOLP index (for the same tolerance). As a consequence, the higher speedups prevail in the overall convergence if a uniform criterion is adopted.<>
Sponsorship	IEEE Power Engineering Society
Starting Page	1309
Ending Page	1315
Page Count	7
File Size	636720
File Format	PDF
ISSN	08858950
Volume Number	4
Issue Number	4
Language	English
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Publisher Date	1989-11-01
Publisher Place	U.S.A.
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Rights Holder	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Subject Keyword	Power system reliability Power system modeling Sampling methods Power system analysis computing Analysis of variance Information analysis Power generation Power supplies System testing Uncertainty
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Energy Engineering and Power Technology Electrical and Electronic Engineering

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