NDLI: Probabilistic mass growth uncertainties

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Probabilistic mass growth uncertainties

Content Provider	NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Author	Plumer, Eric Elliott, Darren
Copyright Year	2013
Description	Mass has been widely used as a variable input parameter for Cost Estimating Relationships (CER) for space systems. As these space systems progress from early concept studies and drawing boards to the launch pad, their masses tend to grow substantially, hence adversely affecting a primary input to most modeling CERs. Modeling and predicting mass uncertainty, based on historical and analogous data, is therefore critical and is an integral part of modeling cost risk. This paper presents the results of a NASA on-going effort to publish mass growth datasheet for adjusting single-point Technical Baseline Estimates (TBE) of masses of space instruments as well as spacecraft, for both earth orbiting and deep space missions at various stages of a project's lifecycle. This paper will also discusses the long term strategy of NASA Headquarters in publishing similar results, using a variety of cost driving metrics, on an annual basis. This paper provides quantitative results that show decreasing mass growth uncertainties as mass estimate maturity increases. This paper's analysis is based on historical data obtained from the NASA Cost Analysis Data Requirements (CADRe) database.
File Size	1358882
Page Count	23
File Format	PDF
Alternate Webpage(s)	http://archive.org/details/NASA_NTRS_Archive_20130013736
Archival Resource Key	ark:/13960/t23c11z1w
Language	English
Publisher Date	2013-06-18
Access Restriction	Open
Subject Keyword	Weight Mass Spacecraft Instruments Cost Estimates Space Missions Predictions Risk Mission Planning Cost Analysis Payloads Ntrs Nasa Technical Reports Server (ntrs) Nasa Technical Reports Server Aerodynamics Aircraft Aerospace Engineering Aerospace Aeronautic Space Science
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Presentation

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