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Estimating the length of the north atlantic basin hurricane season
| Content Provider | NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS) |
|---|---|
| Author | Wilson, Robert M. |
| Copyright Year | 2012 |
| Description | For the interval 1945-2011, the length of the hurricane season in the North Atlantic basin averages about 130 +/- 42 days (the +/-1 standard deviation interval), having a range of 47 to 235 days. Runs-testing reveals that the annual length of season varies nonrandomly at the 5% level of significance. In particular, its trend, as described using 10-yr moving averages, generally has been upward since about 1979, increasing from about 113 to 157 days (in 2003). Based on annual values, one finds a highly statistically important inverse correlation at the 0.1% level of significance between the length of season and the occurrence of the first storm day of the season. For the 2012 hurricane season, based on the reported first storm day of May 19, 2012 (i.e., DOY = 140), the inferred preferential regression predicts that the length of the current season likely will be about 173 +/- 23 days, suggesting that it will end about November 8 +/- 23 days, with only about a 5% chance that it will end either before about September 23, 2012 or after about December 24, 2012. |
| File Size | 473277 |
| Page Count | 28 |
| File Format | |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | http://archive.org/details/NASA_NTRS_Archive_20120015512 |
| Archival Resource Key | ark:/13960/t2k69gc57 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher Date | 2012-10-01 |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Subject Keyword | Meteorology And Climatology Estimating Hurricanes Standard Deviation Storms Seasons Atlantic Ocean Ntrs Nasa Technical Reports Server (ntrs) Nasa Technical Reports Server Aerodynamics Aircraft Aerospace Engineering Aerospace Aeronautic Space Science |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Technical Report |
