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Prediction of hydrological drought: what can we learn from continental-scale offline simulations?
| Content Provider | NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS) |
|---|---|
| Author | Koster, Randal Reichle, Rolf |
| Copyright Year | 2011 |
| Description | Land surface model experiments are used to quantify, across the coterminous United States, the contributions (isolated and combined) of soil moisture and snowpack initialization to the skill of seasonal streamflow forecasts at multiple leads and for different start dates. Forecasted streamflows are compared to naturalized streamflow observations where available and to synthetic (model-generated) streamflow data elsewhere. We find that snow initialization has a major impact on skill in the mountainous western U.S. and in a portion of the northern Great Plains; a mid-winter (January 1) initialization of snow in these areas leads to significant skill in the spring melting season. Soil moisture initialization also contributes to skill, and although the maximum contributions are not as large as those seen for snow initialization, the soil moisture contributions extend across a much broader geographical area. Soil moisture initialization can contribute to skill at long leads (up to 5 or 6 months), particularly for forecasts issued during winter. |
| File Size | 42754 |
| Page Count | 1 |
| File Format | |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | http://archive.org/details/NASA_NTRS_Archive_20110008258 |
| Archival Resource Key | ark:/13960/t54f6s45w |
| Language | English |
| Publisher Date | 2011-03-02 |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Subject Keyword | Meteorology And Climatology Melting Snow Winter Soil Moisture Spring Season Snow Cover Forecasting Great Plains Corridor North America Ntrs Nasa Technical Reports Server (ntrs) Nasa Technical Reports Server Aerodynamics Aircraft Aerospace Engineering Aerospace Aeronautic Space Science |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
