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A new tool for forecasting solar drivers of severe space weather
| Content Provider | NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS) |
|---|---|
| Author | Khazanov, I. Moore, R. Falconer, D. Barghouty, A. F. Adams, J. H. |
| Copyright Year | 2010 |
| Description | This poster describes a tool that is designed to forecast solar drivers for severe space weather. Since most severe space weather is driven by Solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) - the strongest of these originate in active regions and are driven by the release of coronal free magnetic energy and There is a positive correlation between an active region's free magnetic energy and the likelihood of flare and CME production therefore we can use this positive correlation as the basis of our empirical space weather forecasting tool. The new tool takes a full disk Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) magnetogram, identifies strong magnetic field areas, identifies these with NOAA active regions, and measures a free-magnetic-energy proxy. It uses an empirically derived forecasting function to convert the free-magnetic-energy proxy to an expected event rate. It adds up the expected event rates from all active regions on the disk to forecast the expected rate and probability of each class of events -- X-class flares, X&M class flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and solar particle events (SPEs). |
| File Size | 1251153 |
| Page Count | 1 |
| File Format | |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | http://archive.org/details/NASA_NTRS_Archive_20100033126 |
| Archival Resource Key | ark:/13960/t8z94737x |
| Language | English |
| Publisher Date | 2010-07-18 |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Subject Keyword | Solar Physics Solar Corona Correlation Solar Flares Coronal Mass Ejection Solar Activity Effects Soho Mission Space Weather Solar Terrestrial Interactions Forecasting Solar Magnetic Field Magnetic Signatures Ntrs Nasa Technical Reports Server (ntrs) Nasa Technical Reports Server Aerodynamics Aircraft Aerospace Engineering Aerospace Aeronautic Space Science |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Presentation |
