NDLI: On the bimodality of enso cycle extremes

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On the bimodality of enso cycle extremes

Content Provider	NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Author	Wilson, Robert M.
Copyright Year	2000
Description	On the basis of sea surface temperature in the El Nino 3.4 region (5N.-5S., 120-170W.) during the interval of 1950-1997, Kevin Trenberth previously has identified some 16 El Nino and 10 La Nina, these 26 events representing the extremes of the quasi-periodic El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Runs testing shows that the duration, recurrence period, and sequencing of these extremes vary randomly. Hence, the decade of the 1990's, especially for El Nino, is not significantly different from that of previous decadal epochs, at least, on the basis of the frequency of onsets of ENSO extremes. Additionally, the distribution of duration for both El Nino and La Nina looks strikingly bimodal, each consisting of two preferred modes, about 8- and 16-months long for El Nino and about 9- and 18-months long for La Nina, as does the distribution of the recurrence period for El Nino, consisting of two preferred modes about 21- and 50- mo long. Scatterplots of the recurrence period versus duration for El Nino are found to be statistically important, displaying preferential associations that link shorter (longer) duration with shorter (longer) recurrence periods. Because the last onset of El Nino occurred in April 1997 and the event was of longer than average duration, onset of the next anticipated El Nino is not expected until February 2000 or later.
File Size	1443329
File Format	PDF
Language	English
Publisher Date	2000-02-01
Access Restriction	Open
Subject Keyword	Meteorology And Climatology Tropical Meteorology Climatology Climate Change Southern Oscillation Air Water Interactions El Nino Sea Surface Temperature Periodic Variations Ntrs Nasa Technical Reports Server (ntrs) Nasa Technical Reports Server Aerodynamics Aircraft Aerospace Engineering Aerospace Aeronautic Space Science
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Technical Report

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