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Uncertainty in estimates of the number of extraterrestrial civilizations
| Content Provider | NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS) |
|---|---|
| Author | Sturrock, P. A. |
| Copyright Year | 1980 |
| Description | Estimation of the number N of communicative civilizations by means of Drake's formula involves the combination of several quantities, each of which is to some extent uncertain. The uncertainty in any quantity may be represented by a probability distribution function, even if that quantity is itself a probability. The uncertainty of current estimates of N is derived principally from uncertainty in estimates of the lifetime of advanced civilizations. It is argued that this is due primarily to uncertainty concerning the existence of a "Galactic Federation" which is in turn contingent upon uncertainty about whether the limitations of present-day physics are absolute or (in the event that there exists a yet-undiscovered "hyperphysics") transient . It is further argued that it is advantageous to consider explicitly these underlying assumptions in order to compare the probable numbers of civilizations operating radio beacons, permitting radio leakage, dispatching probes for radio surveillance or dispatching vehicles for manned surveillance. |
| File Size | 1062657 |
| Page Count | 17 |
| File Format | |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | http://archive.org/details/NASA_NTRS_Archive_19800014518 |
| Archival Resource Key | ark:/13960/t6m08xf02 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher Date | 1980-03-01 |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Subject Keyword | Normal Density Functions Statistical Analysis Extraterrestrial Life Probability Theory Estimating Extraterrestrial Communication Mathematical Models Ntrs Nasa Technical Reports Server (ntrs) Nasa Technical Reports Server Aerodynamics Aircraft Aerospace Engineering Aerospace Aeronautic Space Science |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Technical Report |
