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The probability of conditionals: A review.
| Content Provider | Europe PMC |
|---|---|
| Author | López-Astorga, Miguel Ragni, Marco Johnson-Laird, P. N. |
| Abstract | A major hypothesis about conditionals is the Equation in which the probability of a conditional equals the corresponding conditional probability: p(if A then C) = p(C|A). Probabilistic theories often treat it as axiomatic, whereas it follows from the meanings of conditionals in the theory of mental models. In this theory, intuitive models (system 1) do not represent what is false, and so produce errors in estimates of p(if A then C), yielding instead p(A & C). Deliberative models (system 2) are normative, and yield the proportion of cases of A in which C holds, i.e., the Equation. Intuitive estimates of the probability of a conditional about unique events: If covid-19 disappears in the USA, then Biden will run for a second term, together with those of each of its clauses, are liable to yield joint probability distributions that sum to over 100%. The error, which is inconsistent with the probability calculus, is massive when participants estimate the joint probabilities of conditionals with each of the different possibilities to which they refer. This result and others under review corroborate the model theory.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.3758/s13423-021-01938-5. |
| Related Links | https://europepmc.org/backend/ptpmcrender.fcgi?accid=PMC8231749&blobtype=pdf |
| ISSN | 10699384 |
| Journal | Psychonomic Bulletin & Review [Psychon Bull Rev] |
| Volume Number | 29 |
| DOI | 10.3758/s13423-021-01938-5 |
| PubMed Central reference number | PMC8231749 |
| Issue Number | 1 |
| PubMed reference number | 34173186 |
| e-ISSN | 15315320 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Springer US |
| Publisher Date | 2021-06-25 |
| Publisher Place | New York |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Rights License | This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic. © The Psychonomic Society, Inc. 2021 |
| Subject Keyword | Conditionals Conditional probabilities Mental models Probabilities The Equation Subadditivity |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
| Subject | Experimental and Cognitive Psychology Arts and Humanities Developmental and Educational Psychology |
