The benefits and costs of social distancing in high- and low-income countries.

Content Provider	Europe PMC
Author	Barnett-Howell, Zachary Watson, Oliver John Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq
Copyright Year	2021
Abstract	AbstractBackgroundWidespread social distancing and lockdowns of everyday activity have been the primary policy prescription across many countries throughout the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Despite their uniformity, these measures may be differentially valuable for different countries.MethodsWe use a compartmental epidemiological model to project the spread of COVID-19 across policy scenarios in high- and low-income countries. We embed estimates of the welfare value of disease avoidance into the epidemiological projections to estimate the return to more stringent lockdown policies.ResultsSocial distancing measures that ‘flatten the curve’ of the disease provide immense welfare value in upper-income countries. However, social distancing policies deliver significantly less value in lower-income countries that have younger populations, which are less vulnerable to COVID-19. Equally important, social distancing mandates a trade-off between disease risk and economic activity. Poorer people are less able to make those economic sacrifices.ConclusionsThe epidemiological and welfare value of social distancing is smaller in lower-income countries and such policies may exact a heavy toll on the poorest and most vulnerable. Workers in the informal sector often lack the resources and social protections that enable them to isolate themselves until the virus passes. By limiting these households’ ability to earn a living, social distancing can lead to an increase in hunger, deprivation, and related mortality and morbidity.
Related Links	https://europepmc.org/backend/ptpmcrender.fcgi?accid=PMC7928561&blobtype=pdf
Page Count	13
ISSN	00359203
Journal	Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene [Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg]
Volume Number	115
DOI	10.1093/trstmh/traa140
PubMed Central reference number	PMC7928561
Issue Number	7
PubMed reference number	33440007
e-ISSN	18783503
Language	English
Publisher	Oxford University Press
Publisher Date	2021-07-01
Access Restriction	Open
Rights License	This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic or until permissions are revoked in writing. Upon expiration of these permissions, PMC is granted a perpetual license to make this article available via PMC and Europe PMC, consistent with existing copyright protections. © The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.
Subject Keyword	COVID-19 global health pandemics social distancing VSL welfare economics
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Infectious Diseases Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health Parasitology