Combined use of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and CRP to predict 7-day disease severity in 84 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 pneumonia: a retrospective cohort study.

Content Provider	Europe PMC
Author	Liu, Yue-Ping Li, Gao-Ming He, Jun Liu, Ying Li, Min Zhang, Rui Li, Ya-Lan Wu, Ya-Zhou Diao, Bo
Copyright Year	2020
Abstract	BackgroundCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread rapidly worldwide from Wuhan. An easy-to-use index capable of the early identification of inpatients who are at risk of becoming critically ill is urgently needed in clinical practice. Hence, the aim of this study was to explore an easy-to-use nomogram and a model to triage patients into risk categories to determine the likelihood of developing a critical illness.MethodsA retrospective cohort study was conducted. We extracted data from 84 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 from one designated hospital. The primary endpoint was the development of severe/critical illness within 7 days after admission. Predictive factors of this endpoint were selected by LASSO Cox regression model. A nomogram was developed based on selected variables. The predictive performance of the derived nomogram was evaluated by calibration curves and decision curves. Additionally, the predictive performances of individual and combined variables under study were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curves. The developed model was also tested in a separate validation set with 71 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients.ResultsNone of the 84 inpatients were lost to follow-up in this retrospective study. The primary endpoint occurred in 23 inpatients (27.4%). The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and C-reactive protein (CRP) were selected as the final prognostic factors. A nomogram was developed based on the NLR and CRP. The calibration curve and decision curve indicated that the constructed nomogram model was clinically useful. The AUCs for the NLR, CRP and Combined Index in both training set and validation sets were 0.685 (95% CI: 0.574–0.783), 0.764 (95% CI: 0.659–0.850), 0.804 (95% CI: 0.702–0.883), and 0.881 (95% CI: 0.782–0.946), respectively.ConclusionsOur results demonstrated that the nomogram and Combined Index calculated from the NLR and CRP are potential and reliable predictors of COVID-19 prognosis and can triage patients at the time of admission.
ISSN	23055839
Volume Number	8
PubMed Central reference number	PMC7290615
Issue Number	10
PubMed reference number	32566572
Journal	Annals of Translational Medicine [Ann Transl Med]
e-ISSN	23055847
DOI	10.21037/atm-20-2372
Language	English
Publisher	AME Publishing Company
Publisher Date	2020-05-01
Access Restriction	Open
Rights License	Open Access Statement: This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0), which permits the non-commercial replication and distribution of the article with the strict proviso that no changes or edits are made and the original work is properly cited (including links to both the formal publication through the relevant DOI and the license). See: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0. 2020 Annals of Translational Medicine. All rights reserved.
Subject Keyword	Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) prognostic neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) C-reactive protein (CRP)
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Medicine