NDLI: Exact Probability Distribution for the ROC Area under Curve.

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Exact Probability Distribution for the ROC Area under Curve.

Content Provider	Europe PMC
Author	Ekström, Joakim Åkerrén Ögren, Jim Sjöblom, Tobias
Editor	Arandjelović, Ognjen
Copyright Year	2023
Abstract	Simple SummaryThis contribution allows for the computation of exact p-values and for conducting accurate statistical hypothesis tests of ROC AUC-values. As a result, the development of diagnostic tests is facilitated. This work is illustrated via simulated data and through the development of proteomic blood biomarkers for the early detection of cancer.AbstractThe Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) is a de facto standard for determining the accuracy of in vitro diagnostic (IVD) medical devices, and thus the exactness in its probability distribution is crucial toward accurate statistical inference. We show the exact probability distribution of the ROC AUC-value, hence exact critical values and p-values are readily obtained. Because the exact calculations are computationally intense, we demonstrate a method of geometric interpolation, which is exact in a special case but generally an approximation, vastly increasing computational speeds. The method is illustrated through open access data, demonstrating superiority of 26 composite biomarkers relative to a predicate device. Especially under correction for testing of multiple hypotheses, traditional asymptotic approximations are encumbered by considerable imprecision, adversely affecting IVD device development. The ability to obtain exact p-values will allow more efficient IVD device development.
Journal	Cancers
Volume Number	15
PubMed Central reference number	PMC10046879
Issue Number	6
PubMed reference number	36980674
e-ISSN	20726694
DOI	10.3390/cancers15061788
Language	English
Publisher	MDPI
Publisher Date	2023-03-15
Access Restriction	Open
Rights License	Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). © 2023 by the authors.
Subject Keyword	receiver operating characteristic AUC-value distribution function AUC p-value exact test
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Oncology Cancer Research

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