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Global maps of current (1979-2013) and future (2061-2080) habitat suitability probability for 1,485 European endemic plant species (Dataset)
| Content Provider | Dryad |
|---|---|
| Author | Pouteau, Robin Biurrun, Idoia Brunel, Caroline Chytrý, Milan Dawson, Wayne Essl, Franz Fristoe, Trevor Haveman, Rense Hobohm, Carsten Jansen, Florian Kreft, Holger Lenoir, Jonathan Lenzner, Bernd Meyer, Carsten Moeslund, Jesper Erenskjold Pergl, Jan Pyšek, Petr Svenning, Jens-Christian Thuiller, Wilfried Weigelt, Patrick Wohlgemuth, Thomas Yang, Qiang van Kleunen, Mark |
| Abstract | Aims: The rapid increase in the number of species that have naturalized beyond their native range is among the most apparent features of the Anthropocene. How alien species will respond to other processes of future global changes is an emerging concern and remains largely misunderstood. We therefore ask whether naturalized species will respond to climate and land-use change differently than those species not yet naturalized anywhere in the world. Location: Global Methods: We investigated future changes in the potential alien range of vascular plant species endemic to Europe that are either naturalized (n = 272) or not yet naturalized (1,213) outside of Europe. Potential ranges were estimated based on projections of species distribution models using 20 future climate-change scenarios. We mapped current and future global centres of naturalization risk. We also analyzed expected changes in latitudinal, elevational and areal extent of species’ potential alien ranges. Results: We showed a large potential for more worldwide naturalizations of European plants currently and in the future. The centres of naturalization risk for naturalized and non-naturalized plants largely overlapped, and their location did not change much under projected future climates. Nevertheless, naturalized plants had their potential range shifting poleward over larger distances, whereas the non-naturalized ones had their potential elevational ranges shifting further upslope under the most severe climate change scenarios. As a result, climate and land-use changes are predicted to shrink the potential alien range of European plants, but less so for already naturalized than for non-naturalized species. Main conclusions: While currently non-naturalized plants originate frequently from mountain ranges or boreal and Mediterranean biomes in Europe, the naturalized ones usually occur at low elevations, close to human centres of activities. As the latter are expected to increase worldwide, this could explain why the potential alien range of already naturalized plants will shrink less. |
| File Size | 3040922134 |
| File Format | HTM / HTML |
| ISSN | 13669516 |
| DOI | 10.5061/dryad.qv9s4mwf3 |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://datadryad.org/stash/downloads/file_stream/739771 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher Date | 2021-06-09 |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Subject Keyword | Alien Plant Species Climate Change Climate Change Responses Species Range Shift Interacting Effects of Global Change Land-use Change Macro-ecology Non-analogue Climate |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Data Set |
| Subject | Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics |
