NDLI: High Spatial Resolution Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on Permafrost Thermal Conditions for the Beiluhe Basin, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

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High Spatial Resolution Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on Permafrost Thermal Conditions for the Beiluhe Basin, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Content Provider	Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
Author	Minghao Liu Jing Luo Guoan Yin Fujun Niu Zhanju Lin
Abstract	Permafrost is degrading on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) due to climate change. Permafrost degradation can result in ecosystem changes and damage to infrastructure. However, we lack baseline data related to permafrost thermal dynamics at a local scale. Here, we model climate change impacts on permafrost from 1986 to 2075 at a high resolution using a numerical model for the Beiluhe basin, which includes representative permafrost environments of the QTP. Ground surface temperatures are derived from air temperature using an n-factor vs Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI) relationship. Soil properties are defined by field measurements and ecosystem types. The climate projections are based on long-term observations. The modelled ground temperature (MAGT) and active-layer thickness (ALT) are close to in situ observations. The results show a discontinuous permafrost distribution (61.4%) in the Beiluhe basin at present. For the past 30 years, the permafrost area has decreased rapidly, by a total of 26%. The mean ALT has increased by 0.46 m. For the next 60 years, 8.5−35% of the permafrost area is likely to degrade under different trends of climate warming. The ALT will probably increase by 0.38−0.86 m. The results of this study are useful for developing a deeper understanding of ecosystem change, permafrost development, and infrastructure development on the QTP.
e-ISSN	20724292
DOI	10.3390/rs11111294
Journal	Remote Sensing
Issue Number	11
Volume Number	11
Language	English
Publisher	MDPI AG
Publisher Date	2019-05-01
Publisher Place	Switzerland
Access Restriction	Open
Subject Keyword	Science Permafrost Model Climate Change Permafrost Distribution Remote Sensing Qinghai-tibet Plateau
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

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