NDLI: ANALYSIS OF UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION METHOD BY COMPARING MONTE-CARLO METHOD AND WILKS' FORMULA

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ANALYSIS OF UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION METHOD BY COMPARING MONTE-CARLO METHOD AND WILKS' FORMULA

Content Provider	Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
Author	SEUNG WOOK LEE BUB DONG CHUNG YOUNG-SEOK BANG SUNG WON BAE
Abstract	An analysis of the uncertainty quantification related to LBLOCA using the Monte-Carlo calculation has been performed and compared with the tolerance level determined by the Wilks' formula. The uncertainty range and distribution of each input parameter associated with the LOCA phenomena were determined based on previous PIRT results and documentation during the BEMUSE project. Calulations were conducted on 3,500 cases within a 2-week CPU time on a 14-PC cluster system. The Monte-Carlo exercise shows that the 95% upper limit PCT value can be obtained well, with a 95% confidence level using the Wilks' formula, although we have to endure a 5% risk of PCT under-prediction. The results also show that the statistical fluctuation of the limit value using Wilks' first-order is as large as the uncertainty value itself. It is therefore desirable to increase the order of the Wilks' formula to be higher than the second-order to estimate the reliable safety margin of the design features. It is also shown that, with its ever increasing computational capability, the Monte-Carlo method is accessible for a nuclear power plant safety analysis within a realistic time frame.
Related Links	http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1738573315301169
ISSN	17385733
DOI	10.5516/NET.02.2013.047
Journal	Nuclear Engineering and Technology
Issue Number	4
Volume Number	46
Language	English
Publisher	Elsevier
Publisher Date	2014-01-01
Publisher Place	Korea, Republic of
Access Restriction	Open
Subject Keyword	Nuclear Engineering. Atomic Power Uncertainty Quantification Wilks' Formula Monte-carlo Method Mars-ks
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Nuclear Energy and Engineering

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