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Original Contribution Modeling Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Effectiveness: Quantifying the Impact of Parameter Uncertainty (2006)
| Content Provider | CiteSeerX |
|---|---|
| Author | Velde, Nicolas Van De Boily, Marie-Claude Brisson, Marc |
| Abstract | The development of models is based on assumptions, which inevitably embed a level of uncertainty. Quantifying such uncertainty is particularly important when modeling human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine effectiveness; the natural history of infection and disease is complex, and age- and type-specific data remain scarce and incomplete. The aim of this study was to predict the impact of HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccination, using a cohort model andmeasuring parameter uncertainty. An extensive fitting procedure was conducted, which identified 164 posterior parameter combinations (out of 200,000 prior parameter sets) that fit simultaneously HPV type-specific incidence and prev-alence data for infection, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN), and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). Results based on these posterior parameter sets suggest that vaccinating girls aged 12 years (vaccine efficacy 95%, no waning) would reduce their lifetime risk of HPV infection, CIN1, CIN2/3, and SCC by 21 % (80 % credibility interval: |
| File Format | |
| Publisher Date | 2006-01-01 |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Content Type | Text |
