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Quantification of uncertainties in regional climate and climate change simulations (quircs) (26).
| Content Provider | CiteSeerX |
|---|---|
| Author | Keuler, K. Block, A. Ahrens, W. Jacob, D. Kotlarski, S. Zemsch, M. Knoche, R. Dittmann, E. Walter, A. Berger, F. Sommer, M. |
| Abstract | climate data Summary The comparison of multi model runs of the reference period 1979-1993 with different observational data sets for several climate parameters enables the quantification of the model uncertainties in representing present-day climate conditions for Central Europe. The quantifi-cation is based on a number of objective distance measures which detect differences in the spatial and temporal structures of the data sets being compared. Additional climate change simulations of two 30-year periods (control and scenario simulation) are performed for the SRES B2 global change scenario. They indicate a severe warming for Germany with values of up to 4 K in summer which is much higher than the quantified uncertainty range of the regional models for this climate parameter. For precipitation in Germany, a weak reduction during the summer months is overcompensated by an increase in winter and fall. However, the simulated changes are smaller than the quantified uncertainty range for the regional models so that in particular a significant reduction of the annual precipitation in Germany cannot be stated on basis of the current simulations for the B2 scenario. |
| File Format | |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Subject Keyword | Regional Model Quantified Uncertainty Range Sres B2 Global Change Scenario Scenario Simulation B2 Scenario Objective Distance Measure Summer Month Central Europe Weak Reduction Different Observational Data Set Annual Precipitation Germany Cannot Significant Reduction 30-year Period Climate Data Summary Additional Climate Change Simulation Current Simulation Climate Parameter Several Climate Parameter Present-day Climate Condition Reference Period Data Set Severe Warming Multi Model Run Model Uncertainty Temporal Structure Simulated Change |
| Content Type | Text |
