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Quantile regression bracketology and the hayek hypothesis.
| Content Provider | CiteSeerX |
|---|---|
| Author | Koenker, Roger Gilbert Bassett, W. |
| Abstract | Abstract. A quantile regression variant of the classical paired comparison model of mean ratings is proposed. The model is estimated using data for the regular 2004-05 U.S. college basketball season, and evaluated based on predictive performance for the 2005 NCAA basketball tournament. Rather than basing predictions entirely on conditional mean estimates produced by classical least-squares paired comparison methods, the proposed methods produce predictive densities that can be used to evaluate point-spread and over/under gambling opportunities. Mildly favorable betting opportunities are revealed. More generally, the proposed methods offer a flexible approach to conditional density forecasting for a broad class of applications. “Though this be madness, yet there is method in ’t.” Hamlet [II,ii] 1. |
| File Format | |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Subject Keyword | Hayek Hypothesis Quantile Regression Bracketology Conditional Mean Estimate Conditional Density Forecasting Broad Class Hamlet Ii Comparison Method Predictive Density Quantile Regression Variant Comparison Model Predictive Performance Mean Rating Flexible Approach Ncaa Basketball Tournament Classical Least-squares Favorable Betting Opportunity |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
