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Q 1998 american meteorological society generation of three-dimensional lake model forecasts for lake erie* (1997).
| Content Provider | CiteSeerX |
|---|---|
| Author | Kelley, John G. W. Hobgood, S. Bedford, Keith W. Schwab, David J. |
| Abstract | A one-way coupled atmospheric–lake modeling system was developed to generate short-term, mesoscale lake circulation, water level, and temperature forecasts for Lake Erie. The coupled system consisted of the semi-operational versions of the Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research three-dimensional, mesoscale meteorological model (MM4), and the three-dimensional lake circulation model of the Great Lakes Forecasting System (GLFS). The coupled system was tested using archived MM4 36-h forecasts for three cases during 1992 and 1993. The cases were chosen to demonstrate and evaluate the forecasts produced by the coupled system during severe lake conditions and at different stages in the lake’s annual thermal cycle. For each case, the lake model was run for 36 h using surface heat and momentum fluxes derived from MM4’s hourly meteorological forecasts and surface water temperatures from the lake model. Evaluations of the lake forecasts were conducted by comparing forecasts to observations and lake model hindcasts. Lake temperatures were generally predicted well by the coupled system. Below the surface, the forecasts depicted the evolution of the lake’s thermal structure, although not as rapidly as in the hindcasts. The greatest shortcomings were in the predictions of peak water levels and times of occurrence. The deficiencies in the lake forecasts were related primarily to wind direction errors and underestimation of surface wind speeds by the atmospheric model. The three cases demonstrated both the potential and limitations of daily high-resolution lake forecasts for the Great Lakes. Twice daily or more frequent lake forecasts are now feasible for Lake Erie with the operational |
| File Format | |
| Publisher Date | 1997-01-01 |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Subject Keyword | Lake Erie Coupled System Three-dimensional Lake Model Forecast American Meteorological Society Generation Lake Forecast Lake Model Great Lake Forecasting System Surface Water Temperature Frequent Lake Forecast Momentum Flux Mesoscale Lake Circulation Different Stage Lake Temperature Atmospheric Research Daily High-resolution Lake Forecast Direction Error Three-dimensional Lake Circulation Model Pennsylvania State University National Center Meteorological Forecast Great Lake Water Level Lake Thermal Structure Temperature Forecast Peak Water Level Archived Mm4 36-h Forecast Mesoscale Meteorological Model Model Hindcasts Atmospheric Model Lake Annual Thermal Cycle Surface Wind Speed Severe Lake Condition Surface Heat Semi-operational Version |
| Content Type | Text |
