NDLI: Estimating the Interval of Failure Probability Fluctuation Under Uncertain Input Variable Distributions

Content Provider	The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Digital Collection
Author	Jorge, E. Hurtado
Copyright Year	2016
Abstract	Structural reliability analysis often faces the problem that the input variable distributions are uncertain and thus the interval for reliability measures must be determined. A Monte Carlo simulation consists in estimating the failure probability for several sets of random realizations of the distributions, thus implying a huge computational labor, much higher than in conventional Monte Carlo. In this paper a method for drastically simplifying this task is proposed. The method exploits the ordering statistics representation property of the reliability plot, which is shown to approximately obey an orthogonal hyperbolic pattern. Accordingly a two-level FORM approach is used to derive the polar vectors for building two plots, one for the input variable space and another for the uncertain distribution parameter space. It is demonstrated that the extrema of the failure probability are contained amongst the samples located in extreme sectors of the parameter plot as pointed out by the hyperbolae.
File Format	PDF
ISBN	9780791850558
DOI	10.1115/IMECE2016-65342
Volume Number	Volume 4B: Dynamics, Vibration, and Control
Conference Proceedings	ASME 2016 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition
Language	English
Publisher Date	2016-11-11
Publisher Place	Phoenix, Arizona, USA
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Subject Keyword	Probability Event history analysis Statistics as topic Reliability Simulation Failure
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

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