Please wait, while we are loading the content...
| Content Provider | The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Digital Collection |
|---|---|
| Author | Zhang, Guanglu Allaire, Douglas Daniel, A. Mcadams Shankar, Venkatesh |
| Copyright Year | 2018 |
| Abstract | Technology evolution prediction, or technological forecasting, is critical for designers to make important decisions during product development planning such as R&D investment and outsourcing. In practice, designers want to supplement point forecast by prediction intervals to assess future uncertainty and make contingency plans. Available technology evolution data is a time series but is generally with non-uniform spacing. Existing methods associated with typical time series models assume uniformly spaced data, so these methods cannot be used to construct prediction intervals for technology evolution prediction. In this paper, we develop a generic method that use bootstrapping to generate prediction intervals for technology evolution. The method we develop can be applied to any technology evolution prediction model. We consider parameter uncertainty and data uncertainty and establish their empirical probability distributions. We determine an appropriate confidence level α to generate prediction intervals through a holdout sample analysis rather than set α = 0.05 as is typically done in the literature. We validate our method to generate the prediction intervals through a case study of central processing unit transistor count evolution. The case study shows that the prediction intervals generated by our method cover every actual data point in a holdout sample test. To apply our method in practice, we outline four steps for designers to generate prediction intervals for technology evolution prediction. |
| Sponsorship | Design Engineering Division Computers and Information in Engineering Division |
| File Format | |
| ISBN | 9780791851845 |
| DOI | 10.1115/DETC2018-85259 |
| Volume Number | Volume 7: 30th International Conference on Design Theory and Methodology |
| Conference Proceedings | ASME 2018 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference |
| Language | English |
| Publisher Date | 2018-08-26 |
| Publisher Place | Quebec City, Quebec, Canada |
| Access Restriction | Subscribed |
| Subject Keyword | Product development Uncertainty Transistors Statistical distributions Time series |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
National Digital Library of India (NDLI) is a virtual repository of learning resources which is not just a repository with search/browse facilities but provides a host of services for the learner community. It is sponsored and mentored by Ministry of Education, Government of India, through its National Mission on Education through Information and Communication Technology (NMEICT). Filtered and federated searching is employed to facilitate focused searching so that learners can find the right resource with least effort and in minimum time. NDLI provides user group-specific services such as Examination Preparatory for School and College students and job aspirants. Services for Researchers and general learners are also provided. NDLI is designed to hold content of any language and provides interface support for 10 most widely used Indian languages. It is built to provide support for all academic levels including researchers and life-long learners, all disciplines, all popular forms of access devices and differently-abled learners. It is designed to enable people to learn and prepare from best practices from all over the world and to facilitate researchers to perform inter-linked exploration from multiple sources. It is developed, operated and maintained from Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur.
Learn more about this project from here.
NDLI is a conglomeration of freely available or institutionally contributed or donated or publisher managed contents. Almost all these contents are hosted and accessed from respective sources. The responsibility for authenticity, relevance, completeness, accuracy, reliability and suitability of these contents rests with the respective organization and NDLI has no responsibility or liability for these. Every effort is made to keep the NDLI portal up and running smoothly unless there are some unavoidable technical issues.
Ministry of Education, through its National Mission on Education through Information and Communication Technology (NMEICT), has sponsored and funded the National Digital Library of India (NDLI) project.
| Sl. | Authority | Responsibilities | Communication Details |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education |
Sanctioning Authority | https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives |
| 2 | Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur | Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project | https://www.iitkgp.ac.in |
| 3 | National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur | The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project | Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in |
| 4 | Project PI / Joint PI | Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project |
Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon |
| 5 | Website/Portal (Helpdesk) | Queries regarding NDLI and its services | support@ndl.gov.in |
| 6 | Contents and Copyright Issues | Queries related to content curation and copyright issues | content@ndl.gov.in |
| 7 | National Digital Library of India Club (NDLI Club) | Queries related to NDLI Club formation, support, user awareness program, seminar/symposium, collaboration, social media, promotion, and outreach | clubsupport@ndl.gov.in |
| 8 | Digital Preservation Centre (DPC) | Assistance with digitizing and archiving copyright-free printed books | dpc@ndl.gov.in |
| 9 | IDR Setup or Support | Queries related to establishment and support of Institutional Digital Repository (IDR) and IDR workshops | idr@ndl.gov.in |
|
Loading...
|