NDLI: Predictive Modeling of Product Returns for Remanufacturing

Content Provider	The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Digital Collection
Author	Ma, Jungmok Harrison, M. Kim
Copyright Year	2015
Abstract	As awareness of environmental issues increases, the pressures from the public and policy makers have forced OEMs to consider remanufacturing as the key product design option. In order to make the remanufacturing operations more profitable, forecasting product returns is critical with regards to the uncertainty in quantity and timing. This paper proposes a predictive model selection algorithm to deal with the uncertainty by identifying better predictive models. Unlike other major approaches in literature (distributed lag model or DLM), the predictive model selection algorithm focuses on the predictive power over new or future returns. The proposed algorithm extends the set of candidate models that should be considered: autoregressive integrated moving average or ARIMA (previous returns for future returns), DLM (previous sales for future returns), and mixed model (both previous sales and returns for future returns). The prediction performance measure from holdout samples is used to find a better model among them. The case study of reusable bottles shows that one of the candidate models, ARIMA, can predict better than the DLM depending on the relationships between returns and sales. The univariate model is widely unexplored due to the criticism that the model cannot utilize the previous sales. Another candidate model, mixed model, can provide a chance to find a better predictive model by combining the ARIMA and DLM. The case study also shows that the DLM in the predictive model selection algorithm can provide a good predictive performance when there are relatively strong and static relationships between returns and sales.
Sponsorship	Design Engineering Division Computers and Information in Engineering Division
File Format	PDF
ISBN	9780791857076
DOI	10.1115/DETC2015-46875
Volume Number	Volume 2A: 41st Design Automation Conference
Conference Proceedings	ASME 2015 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference
Language	English
Publisher Date	2015-08-02
Publisher Place	Boston, Massachusetts, USA
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Subject Keyword	Selection algorithm Product design Uncertainty Algorithms Sales Modeling
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

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