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| Content Provider | The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Digital Collection |
|---|---|
| Author | Takai, Shun Swithin, S. Razu Tae, G. Yang |
| Copyright Year | 2011 |
| Abstract | This paper presents an approach for modeling uncertainty of future demand according to a forecast of an influential exogenous variable, which serves as the first step toward making a product design decisions based on future demand prediction. Optimum product design that maximizes expected profit or expected utility of profit depends on future demand influenced by future exogenous variables (i.e., economic, societal, and political variables beyond designers’ control). For example, an optimum design among gasoline, hybrid, electric, and fuel cell vehicles may depend on economic variables such as future gasoline prices, societal variables such as future climate change, and political variables such as future government standards for fuel-efficient vehicles. However, in particular for large-scaled and complex products, designers quite often make design decisions many years before the product is introduced to the marketplace without knowing future exogenous variables. To enable designers to make design decisions according to predicted demands, this study proposes to link demand distributions with exogenous variables and update demand distributions based on exogenous variable forecasts and their degrees of accuracies. An illustrative example is used to demonstrate impacts of exogenous variable forecasts and their accuracies on future demand prediction and expected profit calculation of a fuel cell vehicle. |
| Sponsorship | Design Engineering Division and Computers and Information in Engineering Division |
| Starting Page | 769 |
| Ending Page | 780 |
| Page Count | 12 |
| File Format | |
| ISBN | 9780791854860 |
| DOI | 10.1115/DETC2011-47493 |
| Volume Number | Volume 9: 23rd International Conference on Design Theory and Methodology; 16th Design for Manufacturing and the Life Cycle Conference |
| Conference Proceedings | ASME 2011 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference |
| Language | English |
| Publisher Date | 2011-08-28 |
| Publisher Place | Washington, DC, USA |
| Access Restriction | Subscribed |
| Subject Keyword | Demand modeling Choice-based conjoint analysis Bootstrap Design Governments Climate change Uncertainty Fuel efficiency Gasoline Fuel cell vehicles Product design Modeling Vehicles |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
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