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| Content Provider | ACM Digital Library |
|---|---|
| Author | Szatrowski, Z. |
| Abstract | Autoregression models have been used in the analysis of stochastic time series or time series which have been assumed to be stochastic after some kind of adjustment. In economics, meteorology, biology, etc., the time series data are non-stochastic and the problem is to estimate, in some way, the periodic, the trend, the cyclical and the random components. In business and economic data the periodic component may be the seasonal pattern or regular weekly fluctuation. Quite frequently, in such series, the pattern of the periodic movement depends on the recent history of the series. Also, these periodic patterns may change over a period of time. Existing methods for the analysis of the above are successive approximation methods. For example, the long term cyclical and trend movements are approximated by moving averages and removed from the series by subtraction. From the adjusted data the periodic movements are estimated by some averaging process and the time series of such estimates may be further examined for changes in the pattern of the periodic movement. Usually no estimates of statistical significance or reliability are made. Even though the inadequacies of the above methods were known, more adequate and more comprehensive models were not used because of the computing difficulties. |
| Starting Page | 102 |
| Ending Page | 105 |
| Page Count | 4 |
| File Format | |
| DOI | 10.1145/800258.808960 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Association for Computing Machinery (ACM) |
| Publisher Date | 1956-01-01 |
| Publisher Place | New York |
| Access Restriction | Subscribed |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
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