NDLI: Designing Policy Recommendations to Reduce Home Abandonment in Mexico

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Designing Policy Recommendations to Reduce Home Abandonment in Mexico

Content Provider	ACM Digital Library
Author	He, Sue Ghani, Rayid Ackermann, Klaus Blancas Reyes, Eduardo van der Boor, Paul Anderson Keller, Thomas González, José Carlos Khan, Romana
Abstract	Infonavit, the largest provider of mortgages in Mexico, assists working families to obtain low-interest rate housing solutions. An increasingly prevalent problem is home abandonment: when a homeowner decides to leave their property and forego their investment. A major causal factor of this outcome is a mismatch between the homeowner's needs, in terms of access to services and employment, and the location characteristics of the home. This paper describes our collaboration with Infonavit to reduce home abandonment at two levels: develop policy recommendations for targeted improvements in location characteristics, and develop a decision-support tool to assist the homeowner in the home location decision. Using 20 years of mortgage history data combined with surveys, census, and location information, we develop a model to predict the probability of home abandonment based on both individual and location characteristics. The model is used to develop a tool that provides Infonavit the ability to give advice to Mexican workers when they apply for a loan, evaluate and improve the locations of new housing developments, and provide data-driven recommendations to the federal government to influence local development initiatives and infrastructure investments. The result is improving economic outcomes for the citizens of Mexico by pre-emptively identifying at-risk home mortgages, thereby allowing them to be altered or remedied before they result in abandonment.
Starting Page	13
Ending Page	20
Page Count	8
File Format	PDF
ISBN	9781450342322
DOI	10.1145/2939672.2939702
Language	English
Publisher	Association for Computing Machinery (ACM)
Publisher Date	2016-08-13
Publisher Place	New York
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Subject Keyword	Machine learning Data science Mexico Social good Home abandonment
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

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