NDLI: Human factors analysis of a Delphi forecast of computer display technology

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Human factors analysis of a Delphi forecast of computer display technology

Content Provider	ACM Digital Library
Author	Tetzlaff, Linda
Abstract	A demographic analysis was made of a Delphi forecast of advanced computer display technology to determine factors influencing the projections of feasibility and desirability. The study was performed on a data processing human factors class of 54 students. It was hypothesized that years of technical experience would correlate with a positive outlook on technical advances, and that respondents would favor developments related to their preferred mode of communication (visual or aural). While neither hypothesis was supported by the data, other more subtle effects were observed. Among these are: 1. A conservative view of technological advance increases with years of experience, although not with chronological age. 2. In some cases, the effects of experience are cumulative, while in others they cause a quantum change in perception. 3. The media, or the extent to which one avails oneself of them, influence one's view of technical developments in a consistent direction. 4. The use of home computers and networking correlate strongly with one's self-rated sense of expertise. 5. Self-rated experts appear to be more optimistic than non-experts about both feasibility and desirability of proposed functions. 6. While there was expected Delphi convergence on feasibility, it was not evident on desirability. 7. There was more concurrence among the experts on desirability than on feasibility.
Starting Page	100
Ending Page	149
Page Count	50
File Format	PDF
ISBN	0897910443
DOI	10.1145/800051.801850
Language	English
Publisher	Association for Computing Machinery (ACM)
Publisher Date	1981-06-04
Publisher Place	New York
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

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